FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

288.66 – 236.69

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

273 – 357

Prediction missed · off by 68 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.8 ±10.4

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 113.77Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 46.23Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 128.66Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 567.2 ±9.3

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 120.19Rank 33Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 17.69Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 98.81Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 247, 9255, 4398

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 247, 9255, 4398

Auto

44.0 15%

Teleop

160.2 56%

Endgame

79.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 201, 8767, 1684

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 201, 8767, 1684

Auto

52.7 22%

Teleop

119.2 50%

Endgame

67.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score288.7pts

Blue projected score236.7pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52
Score range: 177–349
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 630 vs event baseline 334.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.8Season APEX567.2

44Auto52.7

160.2Teleop119.2

79.8Endgame67.7

162Consistency191

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	80
teleop	74	169
endgame	108	108
foul	15	0
total	273	357

Result

Final score

273 – 357

Prediction missed · off by 68 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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