FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

248.4 – 327.88

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

285 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 103.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 470 ±9.8

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 54.94Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 92.17Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 101.29Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 565.9 ±9.3

3767TC Titans

Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 68.35Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3572Wavelength

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 121.96Rank 24Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 137.57Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8424, 1076, 5046

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8424, 1076, 5046

Auto

63.0 26%

Teleop

126.2 51%

Endgame

57.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3767, 3572, 1023

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3767, 3572, 1023

Auto

70.2 22%

Teleop

167.7 52%

Endgame

86.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.4 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score248.4pts

Blue projected score327.9pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.5
Score range: 187–389
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 336.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

470Season APEX565.9

63Auto70.2

126.2Teleop167.7

57.4Endgame86.1

136Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	70
teleop	152	72
endgame	86	15
foul	0	0
total	285	157

Result

Final score

285 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 103.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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