FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

439.42 – 364.04

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

432 – 400

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 579.5 ±8.7

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 128.53Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 210.6Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 100.29Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 541.7 ±9.8

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 140.25Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 135.95Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4855Ramageddon

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 87.84Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5462, 2767, 244

/ 100 compat

Projected

439.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5462, 2767, 244

Auto

59.3 14%

Teleop

257.4 59%

Endgame

120.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3656, 2611, 4855

/ 100 compat

Projected

364 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3656, 2611, 4855

Auto

61.4 17%

Teleop

194.0 53%

Endgame

109.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.47 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score439.4pts

Blue projected score364pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.4
Score range: 304–499
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 832 vs event baseline 335.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

579.5Season APEX541.7

59.3Auto61.4

257.4Teleop194

120.5Endgame109.9

132Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	93
teleop	215	216
endgame	187	91
foul	0	0
total	432	400

Result

Final score

432 – 400

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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