Qualification · Qualification 63
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
399.27 – 327.86
71%29%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
413 – 304
Prediction correct · off by 18.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 658 ±8.7
Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 73.54Rank 38Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 300Event APEX 169.92Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 155.81Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 574.2 ±9.3
Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 63.4Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 250Event APEX 163.75Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 100.71Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 862, 8608, 1498
74
/ 100 compatProjected
399.3 pts
~2.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 862, 8608, 1498
Auto
51.1 13%
Teleop
244.7 62%
Endgame
99.5 25%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 63%
Supercharged: 30%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5982, 469, 9245
71
/ 100 compatProjected
327.9 pts
~1.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5982, 469, 9245
Auto
80.3 25%
Teleop
161.9 50%
Endgame
84.4 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 63%
Supercharged: 30%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.37 · Blue 1.46
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score399.3pts
Blue projected score327.9pts
Red win probability71%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 63%, blue 66%
Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 19%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 71.4
- Score range
- 268–459
- Upset likelihood
- 29%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
658Season APEX574.2
51.1Auto80.3
244.7Teleop161.9
99.5Endgame84.4
140Consistency153
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 63 | 66 |
| teleop | 229 | 141 |
| endgame | 101 | 92 |
| foul | 20 | 5 |
| total | 413 | 304 |
Result
Final score
413 – 304
Prediction correct · off by 18.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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