FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

281.76 – 306.42

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

441 – 237

Prediction missed · off by 114.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 631.2 ±8.7

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 128.43Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 153.45Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX -0.12Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 555 ±9.8

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 84.68Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 134.72Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 87.02Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10349, 3414, 7598

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10349, 3414, 7598

Auto

62.2 22%

Teleop

157.2 56%

Endgame

62.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5577, 5535, 6528

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5577, 5535, 6528

Auto

47.3 16%

Teleop

162.8 55%

Endgame

88.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.83 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score281.8pts

Blue projected score306.4pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.7
Score range: 222–366
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 678 vs event baseline 334.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

631.2Season APEX555

62.2Auto47.3

157.2Teleop162.8

62.9Endgame88.3

128Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	27
teleop	303	100
endgame	91	80
foul	0	30
total	441	237

Result

Final score

441 – 237

Prediction missed · off by 114.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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