FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

325.43 – 299.06

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

452 – 500

Prediction missed · off by 163.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 479.4 ±9.3

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 119.69Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 118.85Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 86.89Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 590.9 ±9.3

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 122.22Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 107.43Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 69.41Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4398, 1023, 244

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4398, 1023, 244

Auto

65.2 20%

Teleop

191.5 59%

Endgame

68.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3656, 5462, 226

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3656, 5462, 226

Auto

62.3 21%

Teleop

167.8 56%

Endgame

70.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score325.4pts

Blue projected score299.1pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.4
Score range: 239–385
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 952 vs event baseline 331.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

479.4Season APEX590.9

65.2Auto62.3

191.5Teleop167.8

68.1Endgame70.2

152Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	51
teleop	285	273
endgame	83	176
foul	0	0
total	452	500

Result

Final score

452 – 500

Prediction missed · off by 163.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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