FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

246.79 – 342.47

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

193 – 379

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 420.5 ±9.3

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 110.33Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3767TC Titans

Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 56.83Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 79.63Rank 38Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 676.2 ±9.3

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 88.97Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 159.09Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 94.41Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5462, 3767, 862

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5462, 3767, 862

Auto

28.2 12%

Teleop

121.8 50%

Endgame

92.2 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6528, 5193, 226

/ 100 compat

Projected

342.5 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6528, 5193, 226

Auto

78.1 23%

Teleop

180.3 54%

Endgame

78.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.25 · Blue 2.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score246.8pts

Blue projected score342.5pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95.7
Score range: 186–403
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 572 vs event baseline 341.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

420.5Season APEX676.2

28.2Auto78.1

121.8Teleop180.3

92.2Endgame78.1

122Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	64
teleop	126	230
endgame	33	85
foul	5	0
total	193	379

Result

Final score

193 – 379

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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