FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

432.78 – 291.68

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

261 – 271

Prediction missed · off by 96.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 561.9 ±9.8

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 136.42Rank 33Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 138.48Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 157.88Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 643.8 ±8.7

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 88.53Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 105.61Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 97.54Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 201, 247, 2611

/ 100 compat

Projected

432.8 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 201, 247, 2611

Auto

66.0 15%

Teleop

233.7 54%

Endgame

134.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2586, 9245, 1076

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2586, 9245, 1076

Auto

89.5 31%

Teleop

145.7 50%

Endgame

53.9 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.77 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score432.8pts

Blue projected score291.7pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 141.1
Score range: 232–493
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 532 vs event baseline 332.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

561.9Season APEX643.8

66Auto89.5

233.7Teleop145.7

134Endgame53.9

149Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	61
teleop	119	115
endgame	93	95
foul	0	0
total	261	271

Result

Final score

261 – 271

Prediction missed · off by 96.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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