FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

344.01 – 282.07

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

239 – 338

Prediction missed · off by 80.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398.3 ±10.4

3767TC Titans

Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 82.81Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 116.07Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 145.13Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 561.5 ±9.8

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 84.03Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 149.45Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 48.59Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3767, 5046, 5535

/ 100 compat

Projected

344 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3767, 5046, 5535

Auto

59.6 18%

Teleop

189.9 56%

Endgame

87.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5577, 3414, 8424

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5577, 3414, 8424

Auto

65.4 24%

Teleop

146.3 53%

Endgame

62.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score344pts

Blue projected score282.1pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.9
Score range: 222–404
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 577 vs event baseline 333.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398.3Season APEX561.5

59.6Auto65.4

189.9Teleop146.3

87.1Endgame62.4

127Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	60
teleop	83	193
endgame	108	85
foul	0	0
total	239	338

Result

Final score

239 – 338

Prediction missed · off by 80.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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