FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

233.78 – 479.98

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

192 – 423

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 467.5 ±9.8

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 52.86Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 109.42Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 71.5Rank 37Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 772.8 ±8.7

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 162.9Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 95.76Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 221.32Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9255, 1684, 9210

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9255, 1684, 9210

Auto

28.8 12%

Teleop

126.1 53%

Endgame

80.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1498, 6528, 2767

/ 100 compat

Projected

480 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1498, 6528, 2767

Auto

76.2 16%

Teleop

284.9 60%

Endgame

113.5 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.99 · Blue 3.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score233.8pts

Blue projected score480pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 43%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -246.2
Score range: 174–540
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 615 vs event baseline 333.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

467.5Season APEX772.8

28.8Auto76.2

126.1Teleop284.9

80.9Endgame113.5

160Consistency144

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	114
teleop	77	180
endgame	57	114
foul	0	15
total	192	423

Result

Final score

192 – 423

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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