FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

378.2 – 417.99

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

329 – 493

Prediction correct · off by 62.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 750.8 ±8.7

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 27.43Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 178.22Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 172.55Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 631.3 ±9.3

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 210.35Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4855Ramageddon

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 77.45Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 130.19Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 302, 8608, 5193

/ 100 compat

Projected

378.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 302, 8608, 5193

Auto

59.3 16%

Teleop

240.6 65%

Endgame

72.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6090, 4855, 7250

/ 100 compat

Projected

418 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6090, 4855, 7250

Auto

68.0 16%

Teleop

228.7 55%

Endgame

117.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.89 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score378.2pts

Blue projected score418pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.8
Score range: 318–478
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 822 vs event baseline 332.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

750.8Season APEX631.3

59.3Auto68

240.6Teleop228.7

72Endgame117.8

153Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	68
teleop	190	251
endgame	52	174
foul	0	0
total	329	493

Result

Final score

329 – 493

Prediction correct · off by 62.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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