FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

399.43 – 216.54

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

499 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 677.8 ±8.7

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 164.94Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3572Wavelength

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 111.65Rank 24Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 122.84Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455.4 ±9.8

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 0.03Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 68.76Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 147.75Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 469, 3572, 10349

/ 100 compat

Projected

399.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 469, 3572, 10349

Auto

59.8 15%

Teleop

202.3 52%

Endgame

127.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7598, 5982, 5114

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7598, 5982, 5114

Auto

63.8 30%

Teleop

128.8 60%

Endgame

22.2 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.79 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score399.4pts

Blue projected score216.5pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 182.9
Score range: 157–459
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 710 vs event baseline 332.1.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

677.8Season APEX455.4

59.8Auto63.8

202.3Teleop128.8

127.9Endgame22.2

110Consistency169

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	46
teleop	279	98
endgame	123	67
foul	5	0
total	499	211

Result

Final score

499 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.