Qualification · Qualification 54
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
280.91 – 153.03
83%17%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
328 – 292
Prediction correct · off by 93 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 136.07Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 65.17Rank 38Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 79.67Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 70.8Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 70.76Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 11.47Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5535, 862, 9215
59
/ 100 compatProjected
280.9 pts
~2.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5535, 862, 9215
Auto
31.4 11%
Teleop
172.5 61%
Endgame
78.7 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 63%
Supercharged: 27%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 244, 3602, 8767
48
/ 100 compatProjected
153 pts
~1.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 244, 3602, 8767
Auto
25.4 16%
Teleop
94.1 60%
Endgame
37.2 24%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 63%
Supercharged: 27%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.58 · Blue 1.23
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score280.9pts
Blue projected score153pts
Red win probability83%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 63%, blue 68%
Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 19%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 127.9
- Score range
- 93–341
- Upset likelihood
- 17%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
368.1Season APEX318.6
31.4Auto25.4
172.5Teleop94.1
78.7Endgame37.2
136Consistency190
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 33 | 45 |
| teleop | 181 | 163 |
| endgame | 114 | 84 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 328 | 292 |
Result
Final score
328 – 292
Prediction correct · off by 93 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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