FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

349.61 – 292.24

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

386 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 653.3 ±9.3

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 109.15Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 164.21Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 76.25Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 593.5 ±9.3

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 110.75Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 136.74Rank 33Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 44.75Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1684, 1498, 5577

/ 100 compat

Projected

349.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1684, 1498, 5577

Auto

35.8 11%

Teleop

182.0 54%

Endgame

121.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1023, 201, 8424

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1023, 201, 8424

Auto

74.8 25%

Teleop

154.1 52%

Endgame

67.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.38 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score349.6pts

Blue projected score292.2pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.4
Score range: 232–410
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 693 vs event baseline 332.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

653.3Season APEX593.5

35.8Auto74.8

182Teleop154.1

121.2Endgame67.4

157Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	99
teleop	213	138
endgame	98	70
foul	0	0
total	386	307

Result

Final score

386 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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