FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

371.37 – 419.9

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

326 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 647.4 ±9.3

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 180.3Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 115.68Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 75.39Rank 37Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 717.3 ±8.7

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 227.98Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 155.57Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 36.35Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5193, 9245, 9210

/ 100 compat

Projected

371.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5193, 9245, 9210

Auto

89.5 24%

Teleop

184.5 50%

Endgame

98.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2767, 3414, 302

/ 100 compat

Projected

419.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2767, 3414, 302

Auto

79.5 19%

Teleop

262.6 63%

Endgame

77.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.71 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score371.4pts

Blue projected score419.9pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.5
Score range: 311–480
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 700 vs event baseline 331.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

647.4Season APEX717.3

89.5Auto79.5

184.5Teleop262.6

98Endgame77.2

160Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	99
teleop	159	218
endgame	93	57
foul	0	0
total	326	374

Result

Final score

326 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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