FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

429.83 – 235.99

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

396 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 657.7 ±9.3

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 127.37Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 213.98Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 88.48Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.5 ±10.4

4855Ramageddon

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 79.31Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3767TC Titans

Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 81.18Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 75.5Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4398, 6090, 2586

/ 100 compat

Projected

429.8 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4398, 6090, 2586

Auto

107.7 25%

Teleop

205.1 48%

Endgame

114.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4855, 3767, 5982

/ 100 compat

Projected

236 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4855, 3767, 5982

Auto

45.2 19%

Teleop

115.7 49%

Endgame

73.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.86 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score429.8pts

Blue projected score236pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 193.8
Score range: 176–490
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 608 vs event baseline 332.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

657.7Season APEX330.5

107.7Auto45.2

205.1Teleop115.7

114.3Endgame73.1

151Consistency169

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	35
teleop	242	113
endgame	85	64
foul	0	0
total	396	212

Result

Final score

396 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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