FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

461.5 – 200.43

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

255 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 105.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 653.6 ±9.8

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 200.95Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 174.78Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 85.77Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 556.4 ±8.7

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 96.98Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 98.97Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 4.48Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8608, 5114, 226

/ 100 compat

Projected

461.5 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8608, 5114, 226

Auto

92.7 21%

Teleop

304.4 68%

Endgame

53.8 12%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1076, 5462, 7598

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1076, 5462, 7598

Auto

70.1 35%

Teleop

89.2 44%

Endgame

41.5 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.02 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score461.5pts

Blue projected score200.4pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 261.1
Score range: 140–522
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 334.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

653.6Season APEX556.4

92.7Auto70.1

304.4Teleop89.2

53.8Endgame41.5

130Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	23
teleop	122	152
endgame	46	25
foul	0	5
total	255	205

Result

Final score

255 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 105.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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