FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

347.12 – 388.43

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

321 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 668.8 ±8.7

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 73.75Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 150.59Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 122.78Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 586.3 ±9.3

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 110.17Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 136.28Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 141.98Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1076, 3656, 1684

/ 100 compat

Projected

347.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1076, 3656, 1684

Auto

80.9 23%

Teleop

182.6 53%

Endgame

82.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5535, 10349, 1498

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5535, 10349, 1498

Auto

53.0 14%

Teleop

211.0 55%

Endgame

122.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.72 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score347.1pts

Blue projected score388.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.3
Score range: 286–449
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 675 vs event baseline 341.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

668.8Season APEX586.3

80.9Auto53

182.6Teleop211

82.3Endgame122.8

141Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	44
teleop	161	212
endgame	51	98
foul	5	0
total	321	354

Result

Final score

321 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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