FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

295.09 – 246.32

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

275 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 40.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465.4 ±9.8

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 168.8Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 58.26Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 68.03Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.1 ±9.3

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 100.04Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 20.91Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3572Wavelength

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 125.37Rank 24Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 469, 9255, 3602

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 469, 9255, 3602

Auto

57.8 20%

Teleop

169.5 58%

Endgame

66.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6528, 8767, 3572

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6528, 8767, 3572

Auto

28.5 12%

Teleop

140.3 59%

Endgame

70.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.23 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score295.1pts

Blue projected score246.3pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.8
Score range: 185–356
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 461 vs event baseline 336.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465.4Season APEX562.1

57.8Auto28.5

169.5Teleop140.3

66.9Endgame70

141Consistency184

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	38
teleop	148	75
endgame	49	73
foul	15	0
total	275	186

Result

Final score

275 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 40.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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