FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

357.64 – 294.67

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

383 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 526.4 ±9.8

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 78.36Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 130.45Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 148.83Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 389.6 ±9.8

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 134.38Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 106.14Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 54.15Rank 38Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9215, 7250, 2611

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9215, 7250, 2611

Auto

39.3 11%

Teleop

203.0 58%

Endgame

107.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 247, 5046, 862

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 247, 5046, 862

Auto

32.0 11%

Teleop

168.9 58%

Endgame

91.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.51 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score357.6pts

Blue projected score294.7pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63
Score range: 235–418
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 739 vs event baseline 336.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

526.4Season APEX389.6

39.3Auto32

203Teleop168.9

107.7Endgame91.5

108Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	16
teleop	260	210
endgame	103	130
foul	0	0
total	383	356

Result

Final score

383 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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