Qualification · Qualification 47
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
261.92 – 427.5
11%89%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
319 – 293
Prediction missed · off by 95.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 551.9 ±9.3
Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 106.91Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 32.06Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 122.95Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 633.4 ±9.3
Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 101.23Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 194.72Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 131.55Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9245, 8424, 10349
60
/ 100 compatProjected
261.9 pts
~1.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9245, 8424, 10349
Auto
63.3 24%
Teleop
124.3 47%
Endgame
75.2 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 72%
Supercharged: 25%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3767, 5193, 3656
79
/ 100 compatProjected
427.5 pts
~2.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3767, 5193, 3656
Auto
87.9 21%
Teleop
243.3 57%
Endgame
94.5 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 72%
Supercharged: 25%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.22 · Blue 2.86
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score261.9pts
Blue projected score427.5pts
Red win probability11%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 72%, blue 71%
Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 35%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -165.6
- Score range
- 201–489
- Upset likelihood
- 11%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
551.9Season APEX633.4
63.3Auto87.9
124.3Teleop243.3
75.2Endgame94.5
122Consistency139
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 79 | 87 |
| teleop | 124 | 126 |
| endgame | 116 | 65 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 319 | 293 |
Result
Final score
319 – 293
Prediction missed · off by 95.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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