FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

277.34 – 387.71

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

271 – 497

Prediction correct · off by 57.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538.9 ±9.3

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 132.86Rank 33Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 135.72Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 8.76Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 646 ±9.3

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 145.85Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 159.75Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 82.11Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 201, 5535, 7598

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 201, 5535, 7598

Auto

66.0 24%

Teleop

141.3 51%

Endgame

72.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1498, 5114, 5462

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1498, 5114, 5462

Auto

68.7 18%

Teleop

219.3 57%

Endgame

96.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.37 · Blue 2.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score277.3pts

Blue projected score387.7pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -110.4
Score range: 217–448
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 768 vs event baseline 335.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538.9Season APEX646

66Auto68.7

141.3Teleop219.3

72Endgame96

143Consistency176

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	81
teleop	152	304
endgame	57	97
foul	0	15
total	271	497

Result

Final score

271 – 497

Prediction correct · off by 57.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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