FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

162.88 – 221.49

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

235 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 470.2 ±9.8

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 66.25Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 29.11Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4855Ramageddon

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 67.52Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 451.9 ±9.8

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 75.42Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 91.21Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 54.86Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5577, 302, 4855

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5577, 302, 4855

Auto

10.6 7%

Teleop

80.1 50%

Endgame

68.5 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 226, 1076, 9255

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 226, 1076, 9255

Auto

70.3 32%

Teleop

110.7 50%

Endgame

40.0 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.62 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score162.9pts

Blue projected score221.5pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.6
Score range: 102–282
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 501 vs event baseline 337.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

470.2Season APEX451.9

10.6Auto70.3

80.1Teleop110.7

68.5Endgame40

146Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	74
teleop	161	163
endgame	42	29
foul	5	0
total	235	266

Result

Final score

235 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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