FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

272.48 – 256.83

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

229 – 269

Prediction missed · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437.8 ±9.8

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 148.96Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 92.53Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 30.99Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390.4 ±10.4

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 108.69Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 71.23Rank 37Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 76.91Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 247, 2586, 8767

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 247, 2586, 8767

Auto

33.9 13%

Teleop

160.0 60%

Endgame

73.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5046, 9210, 5982

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5046, 9210, 5982

Auto

31.1 12%

Teleop

157.6 61%

Endgame

71.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score272.5pts

Blue projected score256.8pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.7
Score range: 196–333
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 498 vs event baseline 339.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437.8Season APEX390.4

33.9Auto31.1

160Teleop157.6

73.3Endgame71.6

187Consistency151

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	49
teleop	118	120
endgame	65	100
foul	0	0
total	229	269

Result

Final score

229 – 269

Prediction missed · off by 27.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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