FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

378.26 – 371.83

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

484 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 54 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 589 ±9.3

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 43.82Rank 38Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 134.38Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 200.06Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 608.4 ±9.3

3572Wavelength

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 128.62Rank 24Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 111.22Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 131.99Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 862, 2611, 6090

/ 100 compat

Projected

378.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 862, 2611, 6090

Auto

77.4 20%

Teleop

186.9 49%

Endgame

115.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3572, 4398, 3656

/ 100 compat

Projected

371.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3572, 4398, 3656

Auto

67.5 19%

Teleop

206.5 57%

Endgame

89.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.98 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score378.3pts

Blue projected score371.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.4
Score range: 311–439
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 858 vs event baseline 337.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

589Season APEX608.4

77.4Auto67.5

186.9Teleop206.5

115.6Endgame89.2

128Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	70
teleop	247	165
endgame	125	139
foul	0	0
total	484	374

Result

Final score

484 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 54 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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