FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

350.54 – 553.2

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

304 – 486

Prediction correct · off by 56.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 631.8 ±9.3

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 159.9Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 74.46Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 116.18Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 802.1 ±8.7

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 115.5Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 225.55Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 212.15Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3414, 3602, 6528

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3414, 3602, 6528

Auto

68.9 20%

Teleop

203.1 58%

Endgame

76.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1023, 2767, 8608

/ 100 compat

Projected

553.2 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1023, 2767, 8608

Auto

109.4 20%

Teleop

317.6 58%

Endgame

116.1 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.24 · Blue 3.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score350.5pts

Blue projected score553.2pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 47%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -202.7
Score range: 291–613
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 790 vs event baseline 336.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

631.8Season APEX802.1

68.9Auto109.4

203.1Teleop317.6

76.2Endgame116.1

149Consistency145

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	78
teleop	171	348
endgame	64	60
foul	0	0
total	304	486

Result

Final score

304 – 486

Prediction correct · off by 56.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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