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Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

296.35 – 232.85

69%31%
Actual result
Winner

Red alliance

Final score

464 – 428

Prediction correct · off by 181.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 572.9 ±8.7
7250OsCODEa 0w|5
B
Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 111.74Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
469Las Guerrillas
A
Season APEX 250Event APEX 145.86Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
244RoboDawgs 3D
C
Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 38.75Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 561 ±9.3
1684The Chimeras
B
Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 80.15Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
10349Pontiac Firebirds
B
Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 104.15Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
9215T-Town Tech
C
Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 48.55Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7250, 469, 244
60
/ 100 compat
Projected
296.4 pts
~2.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7250, 469, 244
Auto
42.7 15%
Teleop
151.2 53%
Endgame
90.7 32%
Strengths
  • · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
  • · Thin autonomous coverage
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 70%
Supercharged: 33%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1684, 10349, 9215
53
/ 100 compat
Projected
232.9 pts
~1.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1684, 10349, 9215
Auto
19.2 8%
Teleop
133.5 57%
Endgame
80.4 34%
Strengths
  • · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
  • · Thin autonomous coverage
  • · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 70%
Supercharged: 33%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.43 · Blue 1.73
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score296.4pts
Blue projected score232.9pts
Red win probability69%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 70%, blue 73%
Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 35%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
63.5
Score range
173–356
Upset likelihood
31%
Data cutoff
2026-08-15
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 892 vs event baseline 333.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

572.9Season APEX561
42.7Auto19.2
151.2Teleop133.5
90.7Endgame80.4
98Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto5744
teleop316235
endgame86149
foul50
total464428

Result

Final score

464 – 428

Prediction correct · off by 181.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree

Match videos

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