FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

296.35 – 232.85

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

464 – 428

Prediction correct · off by 181.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 572.9 ±8.7

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 111.74Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 145.86Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 38.75Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 561 ±9.3

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 80.15Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 104.15Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 48.55Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7250, 469, 244

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7250, 469, 244

Auto

42.7 15%

Teleop

151.2 53%

Endgame

90.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1684, 10349, 9215

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1684, 10349, 9215

Auto

19.2 8%

Teleop

133.5 57%

Endgame

80.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.43 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score296.4pts

Blue projected score232.9pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.5
Score range: 173–356
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 892 vs event baseline 333.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

572.9Season APEX561

42.7Auto19.2

151.2Teleop133.5

90.7Endgame80.4

98Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	44
teleop	316	235
endgame	86	149
foul	5	0
total	464	428

Result

Final score

464 – 428

Prediction correct · off by 181.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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