FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

268.51 – 202.82

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

425 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 133.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 506.4 ±9.8

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 133.17Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 21.18Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 114.16Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.2 ±10.4

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 132.54Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 65.37Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 4.91Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5114, 302, 5535

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5114, 302, 5535

Auto

43.1 16%

Teleop

163.9 62%

Endgame

58.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 247, 5982, 8424

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 247, 5982, 8424

Auto

35.5 17%

Teleop

128.2 63%

Endgame

41.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.42 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score268.5pts

Blue projected score202.8pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.7
Score range: 143–329
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 738 vs event baseline 332.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

506.4Season APEX345.2

43.1Auto35.5

163.9Teleop128.2

58.8Endgame41

170Consistency155

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	105	30
teleop	279	172
endgame	41	111
foul	0	0
total	425	313

Result

Final score

425 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 133.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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