FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

305.77 – 337.34

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

276 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 33.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486 ±9.8

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 66.95Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 201.94Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 36.88Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 530.7 ±9.3

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 91.72Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 139.47Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3572Wavelength

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 106.15Rank 24Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8424, 2767, 8767

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8424, 2767, 8767

Auto

65.0 21%

Teleop

168.9 55%

Endgame

71.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 244, 5114, 3572

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 244, 5114, 3572

Auto

66.0 20%

Teleop

186.2 56%

Endgame

80.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.68 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score305.8pts

Blue projected score337.3pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.6
Score range: 245–398
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 576 vs event baseline 341.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486Season APEX530.7

65Auto66

168.9Teleop186.2

71.1Endgame80.3

177Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	43
teleop	166	173
endgame	60	79
foul	0	5
total	276	300

Result

Final score

276 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 33.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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