FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

313 – 301.9

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

403 – 362

Prediction correct · off by 75.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 648 ±9.3

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 173.82Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 61.99Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 77.19Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 608.4 ±9.3

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 101.04Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 138.48Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 62.38Rank 37Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5193, 5577, 5462

/ 100 compat

Projected

313 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5193, 5577, 5462

Auto

57.2 19%

Teleop

177.0 59%

Endgame

65.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2586, 1498, 9210

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2586, 1498, 9210

Auto

38.0 13%

Teleop

133.4 44%

Endgame

132.1 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score313pts

Blue projected score301.9pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.1
Score range: 242–373
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 765 vs event baseline 331.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

648Season APEX608.4

57.2Auto38

177Teleop133.4

65.4Endgame132.1

173Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	57
teleop	195	217
endgame	155	88
foul	0	0
total	403	362

Result

Final score

403 – 362

Prediction correct · off by 75.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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