FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

224.23 – 284.45

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 73.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.1 ±9.8

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 31.97Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4855Ramageddon

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 79.4Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 112.86Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 452.5 ±9.3

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 61.87Rank 38Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 73.36Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 149.22Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7598, 4855, 5046

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7598, 4855, 5046

Auto

47.5 21%

Teleop

128.4 57%

Endgame

50.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 862, 9255, 6528

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 862, 9255, 6528

Auto

31.8 11%

Teleop

162.8 58%

Endgame

86.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.55 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score224.2pts

Blue projected score284.5pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.2
Score range: 164–344
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 335.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.1Season APEX452.5

47.5Auto31.8

128.4Teleop162.8

50.6Endgame86.4

151Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	22
teleop	87	117
endgame	63	34
foul	0	0
total	189	173

Result

Final score

189 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 73.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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