FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

423.42 – 371.36

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

377 – 557

Prediction missed · off by 116 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 605.7 ±9.3

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 61.83Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 119.07Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 242.52Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 745.4 ±8.7

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 176.08Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 113.64Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 81.64Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9215, 1076, 2767

/ 100 compat

Projected

423.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9215, 1076, 2767

Auto

87.4 21%

Teleop

248.9 59%

Endgame

84.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6090, 3656, 10349

/ 100 compat

Projected

371.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6090, 3656, 10349

Auto

103.0 28%

Teleop

181.7 49%

Endgame

89.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score423.4pts

Blue projected score371.4pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.1
Score range: 311–483
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 934 vs event baseline 331.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

605.7Season APEX745.4

87.4Auto103

248.9Teleop181.7

84.6Endgame89.6

138Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	95
teleop	178	318
endgame	110	144
foul	5	0
total	377	557

Result

Final score

377 – 557

Prediction missed · off by 116 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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