FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

250.73 – 348.12

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

213 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.4 ±10.4

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 54.43Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 105.66Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 90.64Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 669.7 ±8.7

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 118.67Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 112.3Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 117.15Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8767, 4398, 226

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8767, 4398, 226

Auto

36.8 15%

Teleop

150.0 59%

Endgame

66.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1023, 7250, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

348.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1023, 7250, 9245

Auto

96.5 28%

Teleop

135.5 40%

Endgame

106.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.38 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score250.7pts

Blue projected score348.1pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -97.4
Score range: 192–407
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 598 vs event baseline 330.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.4Season APEX669.7

36.8Auto96.5

150Teleop135.5

66Endgame106.8

162Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	84
teleop	122	231
endgame	24	70
foul	5	0
total	213	385

Result

Final score

213 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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