FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

371.85 – 344.37

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

406 – 383

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 649.9 ±8.7

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 162.67Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 37.75Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 171.43Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 694.4 ±8.7

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 71.69Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 124.83Rank 33Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 147.85Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5193, 244, 3414

/ 100 compat

Projected

371.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5193, 244, 3414

Auto

62.9 17%

Teleop

220.6 60%

Endgame

82.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5462, 201, 469

/ 100 compat

Projected

344.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5462, 201, 469

Auto

54.3 16%

Teleop

209.6 61%

Endgame

77.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score371.9pts

Blue projected score344.4pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.5
Score range: 285–431
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 789 vs event baseline 328.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

649.9Season APEX694.4

62.9Auto54.3

220.6Teleop209.6

82.3Endgame77.5

175Consistency133

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	92
teleop	236	170
endgame	68	121
foul	0	0
total	406	383

Result

Final score

406 – 383

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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