FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

330.91 – 298.44

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

522 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 156.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 550.1 ±9.8

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 202.4Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 25.75Rank 37Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 102.76Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.7 ±9.3

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 134.29Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 80.79Rank 38Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 83.36Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2767, 9210, 5535

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2767, 9210, 5535

Auto

65.0 19%

Teleop

168.1 50%

Endgame

102.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1076, 862, 5577

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1076, 862, 5577

Auto

55.1 19%

Teleop

159.5 56%

Endgame

68.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score330.9pts

Blue projected score298.4pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.5
Score range: 239–390
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 698 vs event baseline 328.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

550.1Season APEX485.7

65Auto55.1

168.1Teleop159.5

102.2Endgame68.8

161Consistency151

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	44
teleop	304	87
endgame	144	45
foul	0	0
total	522	176

Result

Final score

522 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 156.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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