FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

384.11 – 210.95

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

362 – 360

Prediction correct · off by 85.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601.9 ±9.3

3572Wavelength

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 161.3Rank 24Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 160.01Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 62.8Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.2 ±9.8

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 51.45Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4855Ramageddon

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 47.93Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 111.57Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3572, 1498, 9215

/ 100 compat

Projected

384.1 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3572, 1498, 9215

Auto

27.1 7%

Teleop

218.7 58%

Endgame

132.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10349, 4855, 247

/ 100 compat

Projected

211 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10349, 4855, 247

Auto

19.7 9%

Teleop

110.3 51%

Endgame

84.9 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.87 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score384.1pts

Blue projected score211pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 173.2
Score range: 152–443
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 722 vs event baseline 326.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601.9Season APEX454.2

27.1Auto19.7

218.7Teleop110.3

132.6Endgame84.9

177Consistency185

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	59
teleop	192	182
endgame	121	119
foul	5	0
total	362	360

Result

Final score

362 – 360

Prediction correct · off by 85.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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