FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

256.61 – 290.95

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

424 – 354

Prediction missed · off by 115.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 664.3 ±9.3

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 123.4Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX -11.66Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 144.87Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 564.3 ±9.8

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 76.43Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 98.71Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 115.81Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6528, 8424, 6090

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6528, 8424, 6090

Auto

93.9 37%

Teleop

109.9 44%

Endgame

48.6 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2611, 226, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

291 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2611, 226, 9245

Auto

81.1 28%

Teleop

136.7 47%

Endgame

74.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.84 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score256.6pts

Blue projected score291pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.3
Score range: 198–350
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 778 vs event baseline 326.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

664.3Season APEX564.3

93.9Auto81.1

109.9Teleop136.7

48.6Endgame74.1

149Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	109
teleop	214	172
endgame	124	73
foul	0	0
total	424	354

Result

Final score

424 – 354

Prediction missed · off by 115.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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