FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

343.35 – 328.93

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

250 – 264

Prediction missed · off by 79.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 606.1 ±9.3

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 114.88Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 90.07Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 138.4Rank 33Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.5 ±9.8

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 89.77Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 110.67Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 128.49Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9245, 9215, 201

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9245, 9215, 201

Auto

78.6 23%

Teleop

162.3 47%

Endgame

103.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3602, 5046, 7250

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3602, 5046, 7250

Auto

40.3 12%

Teleop

187.7 58%

Endgame

94.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score343.4pts

Blue projected score328.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.4
Score range: 268–404
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 514 vs event baseline 341.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

606.1Season APEX483.5

78.6Auto40.3

162.3Teleop187.7

103.4Endgame94.5

175Consistency153

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	32
teleop	130	159
endgame	54	73
foul	0	0
total	250	264

Result

Final score

250 – 264

Prediction missed · off by 79.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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