FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

285.35 – 231.06

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

379 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 100.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 603.8 ±9.3

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 77.03Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 117.58Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 90.74Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.8 ±9.8

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 131.92Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 51.41Rank 38Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4855Ramageddon

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 47.73Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1684, 1023, 5046

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1684, 1023, 5046

Auto

72.5 26%

Teleop

143.1 51%

Endgame

65.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5114, 862, 4855

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5114, 862, 4855

Auto

31.1 13%

Teleop

144.1 61%

Endgame

60.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score285.4pts

Blue projected score231.1pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.3
Score range: 174–342
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 717 vs event baseline 319.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

603.8Season APEX425.8

72.5Auto31.1

143.1Teleop144.1

65.5Endgame60.1

170Consistency182

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	64
teleop	228	177
endgame	74	92
foul	0	5
total	379	338

Result

Final score

379 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 100.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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