FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

187.95 – 226.21

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

222 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 57.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402 ±10.4

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 49.15Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 65.26Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 73.54Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.6 ±9.8

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 89.67Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 65.05Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 71.49Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5982, 9215, 5577

/ 100 compat

Projected

188 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5982, 9215, 5577

Auto

14.2 8%

Teleop

118.9 68%

Endgame

40.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2611, 5462, 8767

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2611, 5462, 8767

Auto

39.5 18%

Teleop

110.3 50%

Endgame

73.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.64 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score188pts

Blue projected score226.2pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.3
Score range: 130–284
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 530 vs event baseline 321.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402Season APEX470.6

14.2Auto39.5

118.9Teleop110.3

40.7Endgame73

174Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	29
teleop	155	198
endgame	50	81
foul	0	0
total	222	308

Result

Final score

222 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 57.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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