FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

356.11 – 213.25

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

508 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 77.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 777.1 ±8.7

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 85.69Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 136.49Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 133.93Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.4 ±9.8

244RoboDawgs 3D

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX -8.6Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5535Bionic Bison

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 138.77Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 83.08Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9245, 6090, 1498

/ 100 compat

Projected

356.1 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9245, 6090, 1498

Auto

101.2 28%

Teleop

169.1 48%

Endgame

85.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 244, 5535, 9255

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 244, 5535, 9255

Auto

32.8 16%

Teleop

132.4 63%

Endgame

44.6 21%

Strengths

· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.86 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score356.1pts

Blue projected score213.3pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 142.9
Score range: 155–414
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 724 vs event baseline 319.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

777.1Season APEX336.4

101.2Auto32.8

169.1Teleop132.4

85.4Endgame44.6

211Consistency232

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	117	37
teleop	210	88
endgame	181	91
foul	0	0
total	508	216

Result

Final score

508 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 77.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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