FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

216.64 – 326.33

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

306 – 536

Prediction correct · off by 149.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 509 ±9.8

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 25.43Rank 37Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 99.19Rank 33Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3767TC Titans

Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 92.02Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 679 ±9.3

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 83.97Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 71.61Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 170.75Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9210, 201, 3767

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9210, 201, 3767

Auto

74.1 33%

Teleop

113.6 51%

Endgame

35.9 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 226, 469, 2767

/ 100 compat

Projected

326.3 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 226, 469, 2767

Auto

71.3 22%

Teleop

182.3 56%

Endgame

70.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.33 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score216.6pts

Blue projected score326.3pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109.7
Score range: 160–383
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 842 vs event baseline 315.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

509Season APEX679

74.1Auto71.3

113.6Teleop182.3

35.9Endgame70.3

171Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	112
teleop	159	303
endgame	119	116
foul	0	5
total	306	536

Result

Final score

306 – 536

Prediction correct · off by 149.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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