FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

278.07 – 423.67

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 419

Prediction correct · off by 107.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 492.5 ±9.3

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 46.6Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 109.78Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 121.69Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 598.4 ±9.3

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 144.94Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 98.77Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 179.96Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8424, 7598, 7250

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8424, 7598, 7250

Auto

46.9 18%

Teleop

153.6 58%

Endgame

62.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3414, 247, 1076

/ 100 compat

Projected

423.7 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3414, 247, 1076

Auto

97.1 23%

Teleop

248.1 59%

Endgame

73.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score278.1pts

Blue projected score423.7pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -145.6
Score range: 221–481
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 318.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

492.5Season APEX598.4

46.9Auto97.1

153.6Teleop248.1

62.8Endgame73.8

201Consistency171

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	76
teleop	32	239
endgame	16	104
foul	0	0
total	67	419

Result

Final score

67 – 419

Prediction correct · off by 107.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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