FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

239.51 – 306.65

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

462 – 233

Prediction missed · off by 148.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 598 ±9.8

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 73.29Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 32.7Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 133.52Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 525.3 ±9.3

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 63.67Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 164.18Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 78.8Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5114, 5046, 6528

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5114, 5046, 6528

Auto

37.3 16%

Teleop

120.9 51%

Endgame

80.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10349, 4398, 302

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10349, 4398, 302

Auto

50.1 16%

Teleop

164.3 54%

Endgame

92.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.63 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score239.5pts

Blue projected score306.7pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.1
Score range: 183–364
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 695 vs event baseline 317.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

598Season APEX525.3

37.3Auto50.1

120.9Teleop164.3

80.2Endgame92.1

204Consistency210

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	14
teleop	303	153
endgame	50	66
foul	15	0
total	462	233

Result

Final score

462 – 233

Prediction missed · off by 148.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.