FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

276.85 – 169.56

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

277 – 380

Prediction missed · off by 105.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 500.8 ±9.8

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 65.81Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 98.08Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 112.96Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 544.7 ±9.8

9215T-Town Tech

Season APEX 129.3Event APEX 14.63Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 105.57Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3767TC Titans

Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 49.36Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9255, 5577, 1023

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9255, 5577, 1023

Auto

69.0 28%

Teleop

112.3 46%

Endgame

65.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9215, 6090, 3767

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9215, 6090, 3767

Auto

70.1 43%

Teleop

97.2 60%

Endgame

-4.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.5 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score276.8pts

Blue projected score169.6pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.3
Score range: 114–333
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 657 vs event baseline 311.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

500.8Season APEX544.7

69Auto70.1

112.3Teleop97.2

65.5Endgame-4.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	82
teleop	139	186
endgame	92	112
foul	0	0
total	277	380

Result

Final score

277 – 380

Prediction missed · off by 105.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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