FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

272.37 – 364.46

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

187 – 376

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 451.6 ±10.4

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 80.21Rank 37Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 79.59Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 112.57Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.4 ±9.8

4855Ramageddon

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 82.43Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 158.04Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 123.99Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9210, 5577, 247

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9210, 5577, 247

Auto

25.1 9%

Teleop

149.5 56%

Endgame

90.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4855, 8608, 4398

/ 100 compat

Projected

364.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4855, 8608, 4398

Auto

58.9 16%

Teleop

205.1 57%

Endgame

94.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.4 · Blue 2.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score272.4pts

Blue projected score364.5pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92.1
Score range: 211–425
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 563 vs event baseline 341.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

451.6Season APEX562.4

25.1Auto58.9

149.5Teleop205.1

90.8Endgame94

141Consistency153

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	34
teleop	102	220
endgame	70	122
foul	0	0
total	187	376

Result

Final score

187 – 376

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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