FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

276.54 – 289.89

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

309 – 369

Prediction correct · off by 55.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 464.2 ±9.8

7250OsCODEa 0w|5

Season APEX 214.7Event APEX 133.41Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 71.62Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 71.51Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 661.3 ±8.7

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 127.78Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1684The Chimeras

Season APEX 226.4Event APEX 45.61Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 116.5Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7250, 226, 5982

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7250, 226, 5982

Auto

28.2 11%

Teleop

161.0 62%

Endgame

69.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2767, 1684, 7598

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2767, 1684, 7598

Auto

76.4 27%

Teleop

155.4 56%

Endgame

47.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.85 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score276.5pts

Blue projected score289.9pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.3
Score range: 221–346
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 678 vs event baseline 309.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

464.2Season APEX661.3

28.2Auto76.4

161Teleop155.4

69.7Endgame47.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	66
teleop	168	202
endgame	86	101
foul	0	0
total	309	369

Result

Final score

309 – 369

Prediction correct · off by 55.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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