FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

232.88 – 81.34

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

210 – 310

Prediction missed · off by 125.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 405.5 ±9.3

8767Dark Horse Robotics

Season APEX 92.3Event APEX 77.38Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10349Pontiac Firebirds

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 72.87Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 82.63Rank 38Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 502.4 ±9.3

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 20.17Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 39.12Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

54622Paw Robotics

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 22.05Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8767, 10349, 862

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8767, 10349, 862

Auto

15.0 6%

Teleop

137.3 59%

Endgame

80.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 302, 247, 5462

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 302, 247, 5462

Auto

-9.0 0%

Teleop

49.1 57%

Endgame

46.0 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.48 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score232.9pts

Blue projected score81.3pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 151.5
Score range: 25–289
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 520 vs event baseline 312.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

405.5Season APEX502.4

15Auto-9

137.3Teleop49.1

80.9Endgame46

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	31
teleop	116	183
endgame	76	96
foul	0	0
total	210	310

Result

Final score

210 – 310

Prediction missed · off by 125.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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