FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

305.81 – 335.39

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

424 – 491

Prediction correct · off by 136.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 641.8 ±9.3

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 132.13Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 128.54Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 45.14Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 658.7 ±9.3

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 77.62Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 138.87Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 118.9Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4398, 6528, 469

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4398, 6528, 469

Auto

61.6 20%

Teleop

167.7 55%

Endgame

76.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2611, 1076, 5193

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2611, 1076, 5193

Auto

82.1 25%

Teleop

186.6 56%

Endgame

65.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.9 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score305.8pts

Blue projected score335.4pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.6
Score range: 251–390
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 915 vs event baseline 303.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

641.8Season APEX658.7

61.6Auto82.1

167.7Teleop186.6

76.6Endgame65.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	101
teleop	240	278
endgame	94	107
foul	15	5
total	424	491

Result

Final score

424 – 491

Prediction correct · off by 136.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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