FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

299.23 – 274.91

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

261 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 655.9 ±9.3

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 100.62Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2586Copper Bots

Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 107.35Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 91.26Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.1 ±9.8

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 52.29Rank 37Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 165.03Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 57.59Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3656, 2586, 5114

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3656, 2586, 5114

Auto

84.0 29%

Teleop

149.2 51%

Endgame

58.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9210, 8608, 8424

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9210, 8608, 8424

Auto

23.7 9%

Teleop

152.1 57%

Endgame

89.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score299.2pts

Blue projected score274.9pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.3
Score range: 220–354
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 489 vs event baseline 307.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

655.9Season APEX562.1

84Auto23.7

149.2Teleop152.1

58.1Endgame89.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	53
teleop	149	132
endgame	38	43
foul	0	0
total	261	228

Result

Final score

261 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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